A prediction market is a marketplace where people buy and sell shares linked to the outcome of a future event.

Each AskMagnus market asks a question with two outcomes: YES or NO.

Example: Will a product launch before December 31?

How do prices work?

A share price represents the market's current estimated probability.

• YES at $0.20 means about a 20% estimated chance of YES.
• YES at $0.70 means about a 70% estimated chance of YES.

The price changes as traders react to new information. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

How do payouts work?

A winning share redeems for $1.00 after final resolution. A losing share becomes worth $0.

Example: You buy 10 YES shares at $0.40 for $4.00 before fees. If YES wins, they redeem for $10.00. If NO wins, they become worth $0.

Before resolution, you may also try to sell your shares to another trader. Your sale price depends on available liquidity.

For a complete walkthrough of shares, positions, trading, and risk, read Prediction Markets 101 under Start Here.