A poll asks people what they believe or prefer at one point in time. A prediction market lets people buy and sell shares based on what they believe will actually happen.
| Poll | Prediction market |
|---|---|
| Records survey answers | Uses real-money trading decisions |
| Usually a snapshot | Updates as trading and information change |
| May measure preference or intention | Estimates the probability of an outcome |
A market price is not automatically correct. It reflects the information, opinions, liquidity, and incentives of current participants.
Use prediction-market prices as a live signal, not as a guarantee of the final result.