A prediction market lets people trade shares linked to the outcome of a future event.

Each market asks a clear question with two possible outcomes: YES or NO.

Example: Will a product launch before December 31?

Start with one simple example

Suppose YES shares cost $0.40.

• The price suggests the market currently estimates about a 40% chance of YES.
• You buy 10 YES shares.
• The shares cost $4.00, before trading fees.
• If the market resolves YES, the shares redeem for $10.00.
• If the market resolves NO, the YES shares become worth $0.

Your maximum loss in this example is the amount you paid, plus fees.

Prices represent probabilities

A share price is between $0.01 and $0.99 USDC. Read the price as the market's current estimated probability.

The price is not a guarantee. It changes as traders place orders and react to new information.

What are YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens.

A NO share pays $1.00 if the event does not happen.

The losing side becomes worth $0 after resolution.

Holding a share means you own a position in that outcome. It does not mean the outcome is certain.