Prediction markets depend on clarity, consistency, and trust. Each rule written defines how outcomes are judged and directly shapes user confidence and trading behavior.
This guide provides a practical framework for writing strong, easy to understand market rules. It covers how to:
Write in simple, direct language that anyone can understand. Avoid technical jargon, legal language, or overly complex sentence structures.
Example of clear language:
| Do | Don't |
|---|---|
| "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Donald Trump meets with Xi Jinping between July 21, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET." | "This market will resolve affirmatively should the designated parties engage in bilateral diplomatic discourse within the specified temporal parameters." |
Every rule must provide a clear, binary outcome that can be objectively determined. Ensure only one clear outcome is possible. Avoid vague words.
Example of unambiguous criteria:
| Do | Don't |
|---|---|
| "An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting." | "A meaningful interaction between the parties will qualify as a meeting." |
Rules must address edge cases, exceptions, and potential ambiguities. Explain what does and doesn't count to avoid confusion later.
Example of comprehensive coverage:
Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.