Initial Price

• When a market is created, there are initially zero shares and no pre-defined prices or odds.
• Market makers, a term for traders placing limit orders, interested in buying YES or NO shares can place Limit Orders at the price they're willing to pay.
• When offers for the YES and NO side equal $1.00, the order is matched and that $1.00 is converted into 1 YES and 1 NO share, each going to their respective buyers.

For example, if you place a limit order at $0.60 for YES, that order is matched when someone places a NO order at $0.40. This becomes the initial market price.

Future Price

The prices displayed on AskMagnus are the midpoint of the bid-ask spread in the orderbook unless that spread is over $0.10, in which case the last traded price is used.

Like the stock market, prices on AskMagnus are a function of realtime supply & demand.

Prices = Probabilities

A price of $0.40 represents an implied probability of about 40%. It is the market's current estimate, not a guarantee.

In the example below, the highest bid is $0.36 and the lowest ask is $0.43. The midpoint is $0.395, or 39.5%, and the bid-ask spread is $0.07.

Caution: The displayed probability may not be the price you receive. In this example, a trader buying YES would pay the lowest ask of $0.43 for the shares available at that price. If those shares sell out, the order may continue at $0.45 or higher.